Mustard remains in very tight near term supply with no change possible until after the North American harvest. All mustard types (yellow, brown and oriental) are in strong demand at cleaning and processing plants in many parts of the world. Exports from August ’21 to April 22 to Western Europe are off 25% from the previous year (’21) and more than 40% lower than ’20, ’19 and ’18. The lower sales to Europe are expected to rebound strongly later this year as Canada regains some market share from Russia and Ukraine. Exports to the USA have continued very close to previous year levels from Aug ’21 to April’22 but this could see a significant drop for the remaining months of the current crop year and into October when new crop first becomes available. Storage facilities in the USA will be fully depleted of old crop mustard supplies in October. In October the supply from North America is 100% dependent on the harvest of new crop mustard in Canada and USA.
USDA recently reported an increase in 2022 mustard acres of 25% to 125,000 acres. Montana has the highest number of acres followed by North Dakota and Idaho/Washington. Conditions in Montana are mixed but some recent rains should provide a boost. North Dakota saw a decrease in acres and some acres were lost due to drown out. Average yield projection from last week for the USA is 50% above last year but 10% below the 5 year average of approx.. 800 lbs/acre.
Statistics Canada will report an estimate for 2022 seeded mustard acres on 5-July and despite the record high grower contract prices the total acres may only slightly surpass 500,000 acres. Still, an increase of 65% over the dismal previous year will be cheered. Yield outlooks on average look slightly more promising than the USA due to rains that recently arrived in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Mustard acres in Alberta saw very little rain until late May and then in June received approx. 4 plus inches through this past weekend.
Mustard crops in Saskatchewan also received the much needed rain but perhaps not as widespread as Alberta. Still, average yield is expected to jump (700 lbs plus/acre) nicely from the previous year (400 lbs/acre), due also to the cooler temperatures so far this year throughout the mustard growing area in Canada/USA. Last year at this time our vast growing region had already recorded at least 5 days of 100 degree F temps with almost no June rain!
I expect a later harvest this year due to the cool dry conditions in April and May that delayed germination and growth in Canada and Montana. The market will be hoping for a dry harvest period in order to receive good quality and recharge inventories as soon as possible.
I received some reports of early flea beetle and grasshopper damage but mostly the amount of spraying on mustard was small. Nonetheless grasshoppers ate one field of organic brown in the Swift Current area to the ground. At another farm in southwest SK hungry gophers, with few feeding options, caused damage to a mustard crop. I have received recent reports from a few growers of fungicide spraying.
I will be sending another market and crop report in August after we complete a crop inspection/tour. I will be in SW Saskatchewan for 21-July plot tour put on by SMDC and the Wheatland group. The newest and best seed varieties, AAC Brown 18 and AAC Yellow 80, will be featured along with new developments. The following week I will be looking at mustard crops in AB and SK. I plan to visit mustard crops in North Dakota and Montana in the week of 8-August with two members, Greg DeBerg and Katie Remien, of the Olds team from Pleasant Prairie, WI. Going forward Greg (QA Manager), Katie, the contractors (Bart and Peter) and I will be working together on the mustard front. Greg has a farm background in South Dakota and Katie had her first mustard crop tour in 2012. Together with their many rich experiences we look forward to learning from them. We all look forward to serving our growers and customers. We are thankful to have you!
After your harvest is complete please update us with your details as soon as possible. We will request you send a harvest sample(s) to our office in Pleasant Prairie as in previous years. I will send the sample details in August. Thank you.
Regards,
Walter